Today, June 1st, marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. NHC is watching two areas for potential tropical cyclone development.

The first is a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula, associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. It has a high (70 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (80 percent) chance during the next five days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

The second is a weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of the central Bahamas, producing disorganized shower activity as it interacts with an upper-level trough. Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward during the next several days away from the southeastern United States. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days. www.hurricanes.gov